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2018 Vol.51, Issue 11S Preview Page

Research Article

Introduction to the production procedure of representative annual maximum precipitation scenario for different durations based on climate change with statistical downscaling approaches

통계적 상세화 기법을 통한 기후변화기반 지속시간별 연최대 대표 강우시나리오 생산기법 소개

Taesam Leea*
이 태삼a*
aERI, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University
a경상대학교 공학연구원 토목공학과
* Corresponding Author
30 November 2018. pp. 1057-1066
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Abstract

Climate change has been influenced on extreme precipitation events, which are major driving causes of flooding. Especially, most of extreme water-related disasters in Korea occur from floods induced by extreme precipitation events. However, future climate change scenarios simulated with Global Circulation Models (GCMs) or Reigonal Climate Models (RCMs) are limited to the application on medium and small size rivers and urban watersheds due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, the current study introduces the state-of-the-art approaches and procedures of statistical downscaling techniques to resolve this limitation It is expected that the temporally downscaled data allows frequency analysis for the future precipitation and estimating the design precipitation for disaster prevention.

Keywords
Statistical downscaling
Climate change
Annual maximum precipitation
Trace selection method

기후변화는 홍수의 가장 큰 원인이 되는 극치강우의 빈도와 크기에 매우 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 특히, 우리나라에서 발생하는 대규모 재해는 강우에 의한 홍수피해가 대부분을 차지하고 있다. 이러한 홍수피해는 기후변화에 의한 극한강우의 발생 빈도가 높아짐에 따라 새로운 재해양상으로 전개되고 있다. 하지만, 미래 기후변화 시나리오 자료는 해상도의 한계로 인하여 중소규모 하천 및 도시유역에 요구되는 수준의 자료 수집이 불가능한 상태이다. 이러한 문제점을 개선하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 전지구모형에서 생산된 기후변화 시나리오에 대해서 여러 단계의 통계적 상세화 기법을 통하여 우리나라 전역에 대하여 미래 시나리오에 대한 빈도해석이 가능하도록 각 지점의 특성에 따라 시간적으로 상세화하기 위해 개발된 방법 및 과정을 소개하였다. 이를 통해, 시간상세화 자료를 토대로 미래 강우에 대한 빈도해석과 기후변화에 따른 방재성능 목표강우량을 산정하는데 활용할 수 있도록 하였다.

키워드
통계 상세화
기후변화
연최대강수량
트레이스선택기법
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 51
  • No :11
  • Pages :1057-1066
  • Received Date : 2018-06-30
  • Revised Date : 2018-10-12
  • Accepted Date : 2018-10-29
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.S-1.1057
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